"Energy is the industry that powers every other industry. The lower cost and more reliable energy is, the lower cost and more reliable everything is. The higher cost and less reliable energy is, the higher cost and less reliable everything is."
Alex Epstein American Writer and Energy Pundit
Azi Feifel
COO PROSPECT RESOURCES
Trends in the Energy Market
MAY 2025
Current Market News
Prompt-month (June 2025) NYMEX rose mildly and closed at $3.636 / MMBtu, on Wednesday, May 7th. Market has been moderately bearish, the 2025-'26 winter pricing is definitely higher than future winter seasons.
Natural gas production remains higher, averaging 105.0 Bcf per day, as compared to 99.9 for the same period last year. Electric power generation demand for gas remains strong, month-to-date, averaging 28.5 Bcf per day versus 29.5 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
The weather forecast is generally seasonal in the eastern two-thirds of the country. After a brief warm up east of the Mississippi, things get a bit cooler next week. No major anomalies from the 30-year normal temperature averages.
EIA - In the 4/25 storage report, inventories of natural gas in underground storage are 1,934 Bcf; an injection of 88 Bcf was reported for the week ending April 18, 2025. Inventories are 44 Bcf below the five-year average and 478 Bcf less than the same time last year.
And yet more...
LNG exports month-to-date averaged 16.0 Bcf per day versus 11.8 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
NYMEX (WTI) prompt-month crude is down, below $60 / bbl. Demand outlooks are bearish
According to Reuters, Several members of OPEC will suggest an acceleration of production for a second consecutive month. Furthermore, there are reports that the Saudis are cooperating with the Trump Administration toward boosting output and pressuring prices downward.
The economy is in neutral. The World Bank said it expects commodity prices to fall sharply this year. The U.S.has broadened its trade dispute with China by imposing steep tariffs on solar imports. US initial jobless claims rose to 220,000 last the week.Per the WSJ, jobless-claims data remain in a narrow range, suggesting no big uptick in layoffs. Housing starts for March fell 11.4%. Orders for big ticket items surged 9.2% in March as consumers looked to get ahead of tariffs.
Power forward curves are up in virtually all zones. Forward years 2027-2028 are lower, with significant backwardation. ERCOT and CAISO forwards are back up after several weeks of falling,
Charges and Credits Impacting Your Electricity Bill
The Carbon-Free Resource Adjustment (CFRA) was created by a provision in the 2021 Climate and Equitable Jobs Act. The CFRA was meant to give a subsidy over five years to Illinois nuclear power plants to support lower-cost carbon-free energy when market prices were below a certain level.
Over its first year, the CFRA delivered a total of about $2.4 billion in credits to consumers. But now, with a lower market, the CFRA is resulting in highly inflated ComEd utility bills.
Customers cannot budget for CFRA as the rate is only published monthly.
It has become a quite onerous utility burden. Unfortunately this is built into the legislation and cannot be hedged away and smoothed.
Charges and Credits Impacting Your Natural Gas Bill
The Low Income Discount Adjustments (LIDA) recovers the lost revenues for qualified low-income customers who have the specified rate services classifications for natural gas.
This Rider is applicable to all customers taking service from the Peoples Gas under "service classifications", detailed in link below. As a result, your bill may have the LIDA either as a charge or a credit.
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