“Everything is Energy and that is all there is to it. Match the frequency of the reality you want and you can not help but get that reality. It can be no other way. This is not philosophy. This is physics.”
Albert Eisatein Theoretical Physicist
Classic Quote Regarding Energy
Azi Feifel
COO PROSPECT RESOURCES
Trends in the Energy Market
April 2025
Current Market News
Prompt-month (May 2025) NYMEX rose significantly and closed over $4.10 / MMBtu, on Thursday, April 3rd. Primary drivers were harsh storms and continued low storage levels. Market is definitely continuing to show bullish signs, the 2025-'26 winter pricing especially high.
Natural gas production has been up mildly, averaging 103.8 Bcf per day, as compared to 103.2 for the same period last year. Electric power generation demand for gas remains strong, month-to-date, averaged 33.2 Bcf per day versus 30.9 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
In the short term, chillier weather moves east -- the southeast and the west warm up. In the intermediate term, the south will continue to warm; the north will remains on the chilly side of seasonally normal
EIA - In the 4/3 storage report, reported an injection of 29 Bcf into underground storage for the week ending 3/28/2025. Inventories are 1,773 Bcf, 491 Bcf or 21.7% less than the same period last year and 80 Bcf or 4.3% less than the 5-year average.
And yet more...
LNG exports month-to-date averaged 15.3 Bcf per day versus 13.4 Bcf per day for the same period last year. Residential / commercial demand for gas year-to-date averaged 40.2 Bcf per day versus 31.5 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
WTI futures are down in respoinse to tariffs, prompt-month crude closed at $66.60/bbl, down $5.11/bbl on April 3rd.
OPEC plus is expected to continue a modest increase to production in May. There has been considerable military action in Yemen as it relates to tanker shipping through the area.
The economy is in neutral. Core inflation for February was 2.8%, higher than expected. Major tariffs have kicked in but the Fed anticipates that their impact will be "Transitory"
Power forward curves for 2025 and for 2026 remain quite high. Forward years 2027-2028 are down, significant backwardation is noted throughout most of the country. - ERCOT forwards are up across all forwards, while CAISO forwards have continued to trend downward.
The recent tariffs extend to “renewable” energy products, a sector where foreign manufacturers have historically dominated the U.S. market. By imposing these tariffs, the administration is ensuring that renewable energy technologies compete on a fair and equitable basis.
A critical advantage of America's energy dominance is its capacity to shield the nation from potential retaliatory measures by foreign entities. Creating a more self-reliant energy sector, the U.S. is less vulnerable to external pressures that could otherwise compromise its economic stability.
Charges and Credits Impacting Your Electricity Bill
The Carbon-Free Resource Adjustment (CFRA) was created by a provision in the 2021 Climate and Equitable Jobs Act. The CFRA was meant to give a subsidy over five years to Illinois nuclear power plants to support lower-cost carbon-free energy when market prices were below a certain level.
Over its first year, the CFRA delivered a total of about $2.4 billion in credits to consumers. But now, with a lower market, the CFRA is resulting in highly inflated ComEd utility bills.
Customers cannot budget for CFRA as the rate is only published monthly.
It has become a quite onerous utility burden. Unfortunately this is built into the legislation and cannot be hedged away and smoothed.
Charges and Credits Impacting Your Natural Gas Bill
The Low Income Discount Adjustments (LIDA) recovers the lost revenues for qualified low-income customers who have the specified rate services classifications for natural gas.
This Rider is applicable to all customers taking service from the Peoples Gas under "service classifications", detailed in link below. As a result, your bill may have the LIDA either as a charge or a credit.
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