"The Trump administration will treat climate change for what it is, a global physical phenomenon that is a side effect of building the modern world. We have indeed raised global atmospheric CO2 concentration by 50% in the process of more than doubling human life expectancy, lifting millions of the world's, lifting almost all of the world's citizens out of grinding poverty, launching modern medicine, telecommunications, planes, trains and automobiles too. Everything in life involves trade-offs. Everything."
Chris Wright U.S. Secretary of Energy
Remarks at CERAWeek 2025
Azi Feifel
COO PROSPECT RESOURCES
Trends in the Energy Market
March 2025
Current Market News
Prompt-month (April 2025) NYMEX opened at at $4.209 / MMBtu, on Thursday, March 20th. Market is definitely showing bullish signs, the 2025-'26 winter pricing especially high. Continued upward pressure caused by a tighter supply-demand balance, LNG exports, constrained storage, and continued uncertainty around tariffs and geopolitical tensions.
Natural gas production has been up mildly, averaging 103.6 Bcf per day, as compared to 103.1 for the same period last year. Electric power generation demand for gas remains strong, month-to-date, averaged 34.2 Bcf per day versus 33.9 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
A colder west and warmer east will flip this week, with some cooling in the east and warmer in the west. Spring is in the air. The broad weather pattern looks very seasonal relative to the thirty-year average.
EIA - In the 3/20 storage report, reported an injection of 9 Bcf into underground storage for the week ending 3/14/2025. Inventories are 1,707 Bcf, 624 Bcf or 26.8% less than the same period last year and 190 Bcf or 10% less than the 5-year average.
And yet more...
LNG exports month-to-date averaged 15.2 Bcf per day versus 13.6 Bcf per day for the same period last year. Residential / commercial demand for gas year-to-date averaged 43.1 Bcf per day versus 37.2 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
WTI futures are generally down, prompt-month crude settled at $67.01/bbl, down $0.40/bbl on March 20th..
OPEC forecasts demand for crude oil to increase 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026. That would still result in spare production capacity in the market across that time frame.
The economy is in neutral. The Trump Administration tariff policies are creating a lot of uncertainty in markets and this is expressed in volatile equities trading. Gold prices continue to rally, passing $3,000 per oz. Inflation cooled last month, while retail sales posted weak results.
Power forward curves for 2025 are up considerably. Forward years 2026-2028 are down, significant backwardation is noted throughout most of the country. - ERCOT forwards are up across all forwards, while CAISO forwards have continued to trend downward.
In the U.S., cumulative utility-scale battery storage capacity exceeded 26 GW in 2024, according to EIA. Generators added 10.4 GW of new battery storage capacity in 2024, the second-largest generating capacity addition after solar. Even though battery storage capacity is growing fast, in 2024 it was only 2% of the 1,230 GW of utility-scale electricity generating capacity in the U.S.
Natural gas-fired generating plants in the U.S. can be categorized by different ownership type, which can influence where individual plants are located, as well as how they operate and even the way fuel is purchased. Those different owners, through the investments they have made, have been instrumental in making natural gas the single-largest source used to generate electricity in the U.S., with a 43% share of both capacity and energy output.
Ask us how much you can SAVE by joining the Demand Response energy curtailment program!
Demand Response (DR) is an energy curtailment program offered by U.S. grid operators.
This year, Demand Response programs will pay significantly higher amounts for your participation. Medium to large electricity users may qualify when they have the operational flexibility to reduce their usage during system peak demand and during an emergency.
Charges and Credits Impacting Your Electricity Bill
The Carbon-Free Resource Adjustment (CFRA) was created by a provision in the 2021 Climate and Equitable Jobs Act. The CFRA was meant to give a subsidy over five years to Illinois nuclear power plants to support lower-cost carbon-free energy when market prices were below a certain level.
Over its first year, the CFRA delivered a total of about $2.4 billion in credits to consumers. But now, with a lower market, the CFRA is resulting in highly inflated ComEd utility bills.
Customers cannot budget for CFRA as the rate is only published monthly.
It has become a quite onerous utility burden. Unfortunately this is built into the legislation and cannot be hedged away and smoothed.
Charges and Credits Impacting Your Natural Gas Bill
The Low Income Discount Adjustments (LIDA) recovers the lost revenues for qualified low-income customers who have the specified rate services classifications for natural gas.
This Rider is applicable to all customers taking service from the Peoples Gas under "service classifications", detailed in link below. As a result, your bill may have the LIDA either as a charge or a credit.
The best compliment is a referral. If you know of someone who could benefit from our services, let'sset up a meeting! PRI's referral program is incentivized; we will compensate you for referring a newly enrolled client.
