"With well-designed energy transition policies, we can have the best energy security... we can bring the prices down, we can bring prosperity to the people and we can create jobs.
To antagonize these two important objectives for the human beings today is in my opinion misleading. We can do both… and this is critical."
Faith Birol Executive Director - International Energy Agency
Speaking at Davos 2025
Azi Feifel
COO PROSPECT RESOURCES
Trends in the Energy Market
JANUARY 2025
Current Market News
Prompt-month (March 2025) NYMEX opened at at $3.60 / MMBtu, on Tuesday, February 18th, trending up. Market is definitely showing bullish signs with continued upward pressure caused by a tighter supply-demand balance and a preponderance of colder weather.
Natural gas production has been up mildly, averaging 106.2 Bcf per day. Demand for electric-power generation is a primary driver for natural gas price variation. Electric power generation demand for gas remains strong, month-to-date, averaged 36.5 Bcf per day versus 35.3 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
Much of the country has been experiencing much colder than average weather. The 6-10 day outlook starting February 23 calls for above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation.
As of the 2/13 storage report, EIA reported a withdrawal of 100 Bcf from underground storage for the week ending 2/7/2025. Inventories are 2,297 Bcf, 248 Bcf or 9.7% less than the same period last year and 67 Bcf or 2.8% less than the 5-year average.
And yet more...
LNG exports month-to-date averaged 14.7 Bcf per day versus 13.7 Bcf per day for the same period last year.
WTI futures are generally down, prompt-month crude trading at $71.79 per barrel. Trading has been volatile with the U.S. trying to bring an end to the war in Ukraine bringing the market down.
OPEC+ is considering delaying its planned production increases again. Softening Chinese demand has also kept crude prices somewhat in check.
The economy is in neutral. U.S. has nudged up to 4%. The Fed is no hurry to lower rates at the current time. Tariffs levied by the US government and retaliatory measures may result in volatility in certain market sectors.
Power forward curves for 2025 - 2028 are generally up throughout the country, with the notable exception of CAISO. The harsh winter and the resulting rise in natural gas pricing is a primary driver for more expensive electricity.
Natural gas-fired generating plants in the U.S. can be categorized by different ownership type, which can influence where individual plants are located, as well as how they operate and even the way fuel is purchased. Those different owners, through the investments they have made, have been instrumental in making natural gas the single-largest source used to generate electricity in the U.S., with a 43% share of both capacity and energy output.
Natural gas-fired electric power generation has increased in PA since 2013 as the state has shifted toward natural gas as its main fuel source for electric power generation. In October 2024, natural gas-fired generation accounted for 57% of the electricity generated in PA, more than twice the share in October 2013 (26%). Over the past decade, natural gas has become the primary fuel source for electricity generation in the state, surpassing coal-fired generation in 2016 on an annual basis and nuclear-powered generation in 2019.
Ask us how much you can SAVE by joining the Demand Response energy curtailment program!
Demand Response (DR) is an energy curtailment program offered by U.S. grid operators.
This year, Demand Response programs will pay significantly higher amounts for your participation. Medium to large electricity users may qualify when they have the operational flexibility to reduce their usage during system peak demand and during an emergency.
Charges and Credits Impacting Your Electricity Bill
The Carbon-Free Resource Adjustment (CFRA) was created by a provision in the 2021 Climate and Equitable Jobs Act. The CFRA was meant to give a subsidy over five years to Illinois nuclear power plants to support lower-cost carbon-free energy when market prices were below a certain level.
Over its first year, the CFRA delivered a total of about $2.4 billion in credits to consumers. But now, with a lower market, the CFRA is resulting in highly inflated ComEd utility bills.
Customers cannot budget for CFRA as the rate is only published monthly.
It has become a quite onerous utility burden. Unfortunately this is built into the legislation and cannot be hedged away and smoothed.
Charges and Credits Impacting Your Natural Gas Bill
The Low Income Discount Adjustments (LIDA) recovers the lost revenues for qualified low-income customers who have the specified rate services classifications for natural gas.
This Rider is applicable to all customers taking service from the Peoples Gas under "service classifications", detailed in link below. As a result, your bill may have the LIDA either as a charge or a credit.
The best compliment is a referral. If you know of someone who could benefit from our services, let'sset up a meeting! PRI's referral program is incentivized; we will compensate you for referring a newly enrolled client.
