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NYMEX futures have stabilized. Lower storage injections are balanced by a cooler outlook. Prompt month is November 2023. Winter highs remain under $3.60 / MMBtu.
An approaching Midwest cold front will drive some demand for space heating. That cold front will then move eastward.
The Southwest, and Texas in particular, remain unseasonably warm.
Year-over-year natural gas production is slightly down. LNG exports are 12.6 Bcf/d, up 1.5 Bcf per day over the same week last year.
Natural gas inventories are 3,359 Bcf, 397 Bcf or 13.4% more than the same period last year and 189 Bcf or 6% more than the 5-year average.
And yet more...
Crude oil prompt-month futures are holding in the $85-$90/bbl range. Prompt month settled at $88.85/bbl., down $2.13/bbl., on Monday, October 2, a three-week low. Many analysts see crude rising above $100/bbl, which would drive further inflation.
Economy - Despite easing inflation, consumer confidence is low, but spending remains high. August home sales declined to their slowest pace since January.
PJM electricity forwards remain flat, with 2024 remaining the best deal out there. The entire 2024-2028 forward price curve is, on average, -11% lower year-over-year, -19% lower than the all-time highs for that term, but still +62% higher than all-time lows for those calendar years.
Electricity Grid is divided into Eastern, Western and Texas Interconnection regions
Did you know? Within each of these regions are interconnected local electricity grids. With multiple ways for the power to flow from generation to load centers, this redundancy seeks to ensure minimal loss of service in case of local failures. The Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database (eGRID) is a comprehensive source of data on the environmental characteristics of almost all electric power generated in the United States. The data includes emissions, emission rates, generation, heat input, resource mix, and many other attributes. eGRID is typically used for greenhouse gas registries and inventories, carbon footprints, consumer information disclosure, emission inventories and standards, power market changes, and avoided emission estimates. In the world of increased AI and transparency, how can this data support your electricity management?
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Energy Sector in the News
Forbes: The U.S. Launches First Funds For A New Type Of Clean Energy: Underground Hydrogen: The Biden Administration’s push to expand U.S. production of carbon-free energy to help fight climate change now includes a grant program aimed at helping a promising new clean power initiative: drilling for natural “geologic” hydrogen.
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Reuters: OPEC+ panel holds oil policy steady as Saudi, Russia keep cuts: LONDON/MOSCOW/DUBAI - An OPEC+ ministerial panel that met on Wednesday made no changes to the group's oil output policy, after Saudi Arabia and Russia said they would keep voluntary supply cuts in place to support the market.
OilPrices.com: How Effective Are Electric Vehicles In Reducing Emissions? Battery electric vehicles (BEV) are the clear winner when trying to reduce emissions in the transportation sector, according to Rystad Energy research. Despite incurring higher emissions in the…
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EIA: U.S. construction costs dropped for solar, wind, and natural gas-fired generators in 2021 The average construction costs for solar photovoltaic systems, wind turbines, and natural gas-fired electricity generators all decreased in the United States in 2021 compared with 2020, according to our recently released data. Average construction costs fell by 18% from 2020 for natural gas-fired generators, by 5% for wind turbines, and by 6% for solar photovoltaic systems.
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EIA: Weather events have reduced our forecast of U.S. hydropower generation by 6% this year Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2023 Weather events in the U.S. Northwest this past spring and summer led to lower water supply, prompting us to reduce our forecast of U.S. hydropower generation by 6% this year compared with last year. Read More ›
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Energy Wire: 4-things-to-watch-in-bidens-offshore-oil-plan: The Biden administration is barreling toward a self-imposed deadline to release its plan to guide drilling for oil off the nation’s coasts for the next five years. But what President Joe Biden will approve — allowing new oil sales or imposing a moratorium on leasing — remains a mystery. If the program includes new offshore oil auctions, it would spark discord with some of Biden’s voters, as many environmentalists see continued drilling as a path toward climate disaster. But the administration faces political pain in any direction, as industry supporters and GOP lawmakers already view the White House as an antagonist to the industry and will argue that reducing offshore leasing threatens U.S. energy security with limited climate benefits.
